Andy Müller was a featured speaker at the 2009 European Gemmological Symposium earlier this month and shared a brief yet thorough analysis of the global saltwater pearl industry, which examined the past, present and the future.For those pearlers of you who’ve lived under a rock for the past 40 years or have been so far removed from the society on some remote atoll, Swiss-born Andy Müller began his pearl career with the now disintegrated Golay Buchel in 1968. His career timeline is featured on his company homepage, Hinata Trading, and shows an exceptional career in pearls. He is also the author of “Cultured Pearls … The First Hundred Years.”
Mr. Müller has been generous enough to post a copy of his EGS presentation for the benefit of all interested parties. A simple download is available here.
Müller’s analysis explains well the shrinking value by over production phenomenon we’ve all seen plague the industry. He notes the saltwater cultured pearl industry was worth $800 million in 1993, shrinking more than 50% to an estimated value of $370 million this year.
Nothing in this report is sugar-coated as Müller confronts the realities facing all who trade in pearls. Akoya, Tahitian and South Sea production are analysed by timeline, and values not often publicly disclosed are given to each segment. South Sea pearl production, for example has increased from 650kan in 1998 with a total value of $220 million, to 3,350kan in 2009 with a decrease in value to $172 million, or 4,870 yen per momme.
Whilst the 4,870 yen does account for the bodgy production in Indonesia and the Philippines, it certainly does raise another question for Arafura investors who are waiting for an 18,000 yen per momme windfall.
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16 comments:
The same story - over and over again - Mr Muller should consider to change it for once. Copy past will not do - and just some new figures are not enough ...
wow I am shocked with all the vitriol directed to the Paspaley group,I hear that the Pearl Professor is banned in their office.How the hell are they going to find out whats happening in their office in a timely manner.Anyway I Thought maybe a joke would detense ( is that a word prof ) the atmosphere.Nick stop digging up your Lawyer and enjoy.
A priest kept chickens at the Village Parish.one evening the cock went missing,So at Mass that evening he asked the congregation "Who has a cock",all the men stood up,"No I meant who has seen a cock" all the women got up."No no who has seen a cock that isnt their's,half the women got up,'Oh for goodness sake ,who's seen my cock" all the choir boys got up..............
Good report Andy
I've been banned at Paspaley? I recognise the "vitriol", but I have always admired and respected the Paspaley organisation. Maybe I am too frank? ;-)
So this word detense, I don't recognise it. May I have it in (another) sentence please?
And to lighten the mood:
Two Aussie cattle drovers standing in an Outback bar.
One asked, "What are you up to, Mate?"
Ahh, I'm takin' a mob of 6000 from Goondiwindi to Gympie."
"Oh yeah ... and what route are you takin'?"
"Ah, probably the Missus; after all, she stuck by me durin' the drought."
Your comment regarding Yen 18,000 obviously relates to Arafura Pearls latest managed investment scheme, where investors are told this is what they might get for south sea pearls in the future ( with a 3% increase each year). It is hard to know who is more stupid in this bizarrely priced little investment scheme. Is it Arafura, their auditors for signing off, ASIC for allowing these schemes, their Adviser Edge for agreeing fulsomely with Arafura's prices,their "technical" expert,the agents promoting the scheme, or the investors? Probably only the investors ( who must truly be stupid) - the rest would have to be blinded by salaries and fees to not be aware of the tragic state of pearl sales volume and prices. Silly me thought auditors and statuatory bodies like ASIC were there to protect the investing public, but there you go.
Maybe Wild Bill Heffernan will ask a question or 2 in his upcoming Senate inquiry into MIS's - there can't be that many left now with so many collapsing, so Arafura could well come into the crosshairs.
As the scholarly Mr Muller indirectly reveals through his analysis, their inferred PDS price is 2 to 3 times what other Aust farmers are getting ( when they can sell, that is). Atlas Pearls, the only other Aust public pearling company, are bringing in only around Y7,500 per momme from a relatively much more successful production and marketing base.
As investors in Great Southern Plantations found out, investmentments in MIS can be disastorous, even with the up front tax advantages, which is often the way they are promoted. You'd reckon that least one director of Arafura would know this, but again - there ya go.
The Pearl Professor said...
"So this word detense, I don't recognise it. May I have it in (another) sentence please?"
yo its a real word prof. howz about....i was in detense and saw nickyboy in the drunktank
My assumtion was 'detense = to relax.'
sorry prof. your "assumPtion" is wrong. you're not very good at spelling either. man, your grammar is a little m.i.a. lately too. you must be stressed. relax dawg.
Here's my contribution.( you bunch of dirty old pearling bastards)
An american woman of 40 wants to get married, but she is only willing to marry a man if he is a virgin. After several unsuccessful years of searching the world she decides to take out a personal ad and ends up corresponding with a mate who has lived his entire life in the Australian outback. They get hitched and on their wedding night she goes into the powder room to prepare for the romance. When she returns to the bedroom she finds her new husband standing in the middle of the room naked and all the furniture from the room piled up in one corner. "What happened?" she asks. "I've never been with a woman," he says, "but if it's anything like a kangaroo, I'm gonna need all the room I can get!"
Professor, I don't understand how you could publish the comment from "Anonymous 6/30 8:04". It is disgusting, innappropriate, and has no business on this blog. It was my understanding that you are suppose to approve all comments prior to posting them.
I believe you're right. I don't typically edit comments, but I'll take that one off.
Awww, too late...I missed it!
All one really has to do is attract the attention of some sensation reporter and finished are the pearl platers at Paspaley. That's what happened to Colombian emeralds here when Fred Ward reported on his green-polymer-coated treasure buy on TV.
Yeah, sure, same Fred Ward who criticized the thin Akoya coating in 1985 (Nat. Geographic Mag.) and the Japanese will never forgive him for generations to come! They claim the resulting damage was in the tens of millions of dollars... but sure Fred Ward made the headlines, while akoya sales plummeted in the U.S.!
Who's Fred Ward? What does he have to do with Colombian emeralds?
Really, I am quite adorable compared to this Mr. Kelly; idol worship of the Pearl Plated Beast, adultery and fornicating with Paspaley's Hong Kong sales manager, narcoticism, Ned's head in a jar...etc.
In the Old Testament, all I ever did was convince King David to take a census(1 Chronicles) and somehow ended up as God's infernal gatekeeper and evil understudy(Job)!! It is God that has condemned My worshippers to eternal damnation, not Me, ye defiant clods. Do not worry, Mr. Kelly, God loves you.
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