Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Basel Fair Feels the Crunch

The Basel Jewelry Fair is not going well this year.When I hit the Basel Fair Ground, the messages were already clearly visible: public transport (trams and buses) are practically empty... not like in the past, standing up tight in the trams, no, one can get seats, and to catch a taxi is possible even during Fair rush hours.

Fair goers are accustomed to premium-priced hotels, booked to capacity. Want a hotel room in Basel during the Fair this year? Try it, and get it... as there are so many cancellations.

The fair is a important event, not only for buyers and sellers of luxury goods, but for hotels, restaurants and the many taxi drivers accustomed to a week of bustling business…but not this year. The local economy is suffering.

Fair Reception Windows are staffed, waiting for visitors... no waiting time... Halls, corridors and the booths are empty. Want to have a quiet chat and coffee with the exhibitors? Sure, anytime, they are idle... nothing going. Maybe a bit of exaggeration is included in comments I got such as "ghost town" and "catastrophic" and "a flop" and "nothing going" and "you can hear a penny drop". The show ends in a few short days, can anything turn it around?

Major contributors to last year's success were definitely the Russian and the East European emerging markets... were it not for those, last year would not have been that good, everybody knows. Well, this year, these guys are missing... Buyers from medium to large chain stores in Europe number less and have a very tight budget. These guys are being watched by their head quarters and were told to "better make no mistakes, we have no more room for errors"... the motto is clear: just buy for now, not for tomorrow, there will be plenty of goods anytime, anywhere... and probably at lower prices in future.

The news is obviously out that more and more pearls are flowing in, whilst they are not flowing out... the bucket is overflowing... yeah, the news is not good at all!!! And it seems one of the topics of the idle exhibitors who have ample time to chat, is who will exhibit next year, who will cancel? A shake-out? The expenses and efforts are in no relation to sales/profit... what profit(?).... Probably for all exhibitors, impossible to cover (even part of) costs. Can do it once, can do it maybe twice (?)…we better see a rebound soon... but it will not be soon... guys, we'll be in the dungeon for quite some time, and probably the last industry to recover from this global recession!

Monday, March 23, 2009

The Pearl Salad

There were a lot of correct responses from the pearl salad contest.

Several readers have made comments to me in reference to the two nautilus pearl posted to the earlier post. I concur that they do resemble clam pearls, but the source of the photos is highly credible. I postulate we will have to wait for Mr. Scarrat's monograph before a more informed debate may commence.

The answers:

1. Spondylus regius – Regal Thorny Oyster
2. Cassis madagascariensis – Helmet Shell or Emperor Helmet
3. Pleuroploca gigantean – Florida Horse Conch
4. Atrina vexillium – Black Pin Shell
5. Pleuroploca trapezium - Horse Conch
6. Pinctada mazatlanica – Panama Shell (Madreperla) An Interesting Pearl Contest
7. Melo melo – Indian Volute
8. Pleuroploca gigantean - Florida Horse Conch
9. strombus gigas – Queen Conch
10. Pinctada radiata – Lingah or Atlantic Pearl Shell
11. Tridacna squamosa – Fluted Clam
12. Melo broderipii - Volute
13. Nautilus Pompilius - Nautilus
14. Pleuroploca gigantean - Florida Horse Conch
15. strombus gigas - Queen Conch
16. Pinctada maxima – Silver- (gold-) Lip
17. Haliotis iris - Abalone
18. Pleuroploca gigantean - Florida Horse Conch
19. Argopecten purpuratus - Scallop
20. Lopha cristagalli - Cockscomb
21. Pinctada maxima - Silver- (gold-) Lip

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Is Arafura the Future Enron of Pearls?

Slight Edit - 03.23.09

Is Arafura Pearls heading the way of Enron?Last September I posted about Arafura Pearls’ announcement of an after-tax profit of $10.05 million; a sizable sum of money for any small- to medium-size operation. It assuredly seemed like the folks at Arafura were doing something right. But are they? At the time, I took little notice of the accountancy, falling arse over tit for any morsel of good news. But the continuing announcements of good news in the form of staggering profits from a company trading in an otherwise floundering industry caught my assiduity.

When I first posted on Arafura last year, I didn’t take a close look at the company. Arafura is a publicly traded company. Their numbers are public. When they reported a profit of more than $10 million, whilst surprising, I took the figures at face value. But how are they determining such a high profit?

Upon examining Arafura’s income statement for the fiscal year ending June 2008, I rescind my earlier post on their profitability. It does not look like profit to me, merely the hope of a future windfall.

Sales revenues for Arafura through June, 2008 are reported to be $6,514,971, with other revenues of $398,104. So how in the hell could they report a profit of more than $10 million? Consider this! Employee expenses during the reporting period were $6,061,428. There go the revenues, right? But operating expenses are not strictly tied to employee expenses. There are equipment expenses, lease expenses, travel expenses, fuel expenses…the list goes on. Total Arafura operating expenses were nearly $15,000,000. But they made an after-tax profit of more than $10 million?

Let’s examine the second half of 2008 – the first half of the following fiscal year. Arafura’s total sales revenue was a diminutive $235,427. Their operating expenses totaled $8,107,463. That’s not within cooee of a profit. In fact, it looks like nearly an $8 million loss, right? But no, according to Arafura’s books, it’s a before-tax profit of another $4 million.

Are you gobsmacked yet? You should be. It doesn’t take a mathematician to see something is a wee bit odd here.

So where in the hell is this profit coming from??!! I found it in the income statements.

In June 2008, Arafura’s income statement showed an increase in non-current biological assets of $22,325,412. By December 2008, that figure rose again by another $10,351,838 to nearly $52 million! So what are biological assets? What might it mean for a biological asset to “not be current”?

Let's examine a few statements from Arafura’s annual and half-yearly reports.

The value of shell inventory stocks in the water has increased substantially since the half year ended 31 December 2007. Successful spawning seasons for 2008 & year to date 2009 have generated sufficient spat stocks that will be required to meet our 2009 – 1011 seeding quotas. Accordingly, the increased number of shell in the water is reflected on the Balance Sheet with a much higher inventory valuation figure.

Further

Increased hatchery production of over 1 million shell that has and will be selected into panels for growout. The spawning season runs from September to May and the 2008 output level represents a significant increase above previous years production levels to meet the recent increases in our quota level. The significance to the Company is that this hatchery production should enable the Company to meet quota levels in the 2009 season and beyond.

And further

As a consequence of the production performance for the year, the value of shell inventory more than doubled in the financial year, from $19.1 million to $41.3 million. The shell which is being farmed for the Company’s account is valued according to the SGARA accounting standard for biological assets and the shell which is farmed for the Managed Investment Scheme (“MIS”) growers are valued at cost of production.

Is this a cockup? It looks as if the profit Arafura is publishing appears to be based on the value of the shell they are producing, including the SPAT! Am I reading that wrong?

I wonder if this large write up of biological assets could possibly be considered deceptive under the Corporations Act. Presumably, they write up the value of all types of shell at whatever stage they are at, at an inflated price, thus reaching their staggering value. This could be misleading on several counts. Firstly, by giving all oysters an asset value, it presumes there is some sort of market in the pearl industry for all types of oysters. There is not. Australian farms are winding their production programs back, and most will not seed anywhere near their own quotas, let alone buy oysters from another producer such as Arafura.

Secondly, the whole industry is governed by quotas. It would be interesting to know how many oysters are included in their calculations to reach $52 million, but it must be millions. There is no scope under the quota system to use anywhere near these numbers in a legal manner.

Further, how can shell be counted at all stages of growout? What percentage of hatchery spat, or even juvenile shell actually reach the seeding table?

Finally, these figures do not take into account the dire situation the industry has found itself in. Producers are cutting back for a reason. Pearls are not selling. The market has dried up and until this world recession reverses direction, there is no bright light visible on the near horizon. Pearl oysters cannot be shelved like their pearls.

The Australian industry has sailed into terribly dangerous waters. More than ever, serious long-term farmers need the support of bankers and investors.

It would be interesting to know if a lawyer or ASIC considered these tactics of theirs legal. Presumably, Arafura is attempting to show a profit to appease banks and investors, as they burn money at a furious rate (A$16 mill p.a.) while the rest of the industry scrambles to scale back, and have a pitiful income from sale of pearls ($235,000 for the half year).

In an interesting development near the end of February, Arafura released a New Issue Announcement. It reads 82,081,790 shares at $0.05 per share. The purpose of the lion’s share of shares, SHORTFALL ALLOCATION.

It might not be long before the spat hits the fan.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Rumblings in the South Sea Pearl Industry

Stories and rumor are a'rumbling in the South Sea pearl industry.The wires are silent but the rumors and insider information are buzzing. There are some big happenings these days and soon the proverbial shit will hit the fan on so many fronts.

Let’s start with the biggest rumor that may have the largest impact on the industry. Autore is closing up shop. Whilst yet only a rumor, it’s the talk of the town. Autore may not be as well known as Paspaley, they are the second largest marketer of South Sea pearls around the world. They are known to process and market the pearls produced by Arafura (which bought Arrow in 2006), Atlas from Indonesia, and about six other Australian companies. If Autore were to dissolve, there would only be one sceptre on the throne.

Speaking of Atlas, managing director Joseph Taylor will be stepping down in June of this year, to be replaced by Mr. Richard Wright, the current general manager. Taylor will remain completely with the company, however, taking on the role of technical advisor, focusing on the biological and research aspects of the company.

Other recent Atlas updates include the introduction of a retail line including Tahitian-style gold pearls on leather last week in Hong Kong, and an issuance of new shares to raise money to fund capital commitments. Hong Kong was likely a wash, given the poor attendance and lackluster sales felt by all who attended.

And what is happening on the Paspaley front? Paspaley is cutting production, pulling most of their boats out of the water, and at the same time merging with Kailis, buying out other producers such as Morgan Pearl and possibly Blue Seas and Cygnet Bay soon. But even Paspaley’s sales are hurting. The news in from Australia is quite clear. South Sea pearl sales have dried up – almost overnight. One must wonder if Paspaley is pinning all hopes on a future monopolization of the industry.

With all the calamities befalling the South Sea pearl industry, one would not expect investors to be diving into the pearling business, right? Well, that may not be the case. A Saudi Arabian company just announced that it plans to pour $200 million into the creating of a large pearl farm and biodiesel production plant off the coast of Port Hedland. Biodiesel and pearls…not the best combination by any stretch of the imagination.

So what other BIG story is brewing in Australia? This one demands a post to call its own. The one hint I can give is that the company name starts with an A.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

An Interesting Pearl Contest

I received an email yesterday from an author and natural pearl collector with a few intriguing photos. One was of what he referred to as a ‘Pearl Salad’. A natural pearl collage of all types and origins, many I am completely unfamiliar with.

The pearl salad was accompanied by a list of the different mollusk species from whence the pearls were obtained. I tried naming them myself prior to checking the answers and my results were not exactly admirable. I was able to recognize only five of the pearls, one of which was a lucky guess. A Natural Pearl SaladWould any readers care to speculate on the origin of each? It would be certainly be an opportunity to shine. There is no doubt a prize would be necessary.

Included with this marvelous picture was another I found especially alluring. The two pearls showing brilliant flame pattern are nautilus pearls that come with strong evidence of true provenance. These, my friends, might just be the rarest pearls in the world.Rare Nautilus Pearls

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Tahiti Pearl Consortium Takes Shape

Preparing Tahitian Pearls for AuctionTahitian pearl producers have banded together in an effort to stablise Tahitian pearl prices around the world with the creation of the newly-established Tahiti Pearl Consortium.

The new consortium is comprised of four different syndicates attempting a ground-breaking new idea. They are going to try working together. The syndicates are comprised of Wan, Tehaamatai and GIE Poe O Tahiti Nui’s Syndicat Professionnel des Producteurs de Perles, along with Chenne’s SPPMF (Syndicat des petits et moyens producteurs de PolynĂ©sie française), the Syndicat des exportateurs de perles de Tahiti which represents pearl traders, and Japan’s Tahiti Pearl Promotion Society.

The way this is going to work is Robert Wan will sort, grade, price and sell the pearls for all four syndicates. Considering the TPC claim that the syndicates account for 80% of French Polynesia’s output, this should go a long way in stabilising pearl prices on the global market.

Robert Wan endeavors to tender the pearls, all 80%, at tri-annual auctions in Hong Kong and bi-annual auctions in Kobe, Japan.

An interesting twist to this new plan, the consortium has devised a way to renew funding to the Tahiti Pearl Promotion Society of Japan (TPJ), which had a large part of its funding cut when the export tax was eliminated in October of last year, by allowing only Japanese buyers who are members of TPJ to attend. The plan does not exclude other international buyers, but historically, the bulk of buyers at Wan’s auctions are Japanese.

This is a bold plan and a bold move by Wan and other producers and industry supporters. Whether it will work still remains to be seen. But while they are at it, they should work to reign in producers who have embarked upon a dumping spree in Asia, which is killing the market value of Tahitian pearls in the world and speeding the demise of this industry already on the brink.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Luxury Business' Falters

The bankruptcies are not happening left and right. Who will be next?It is impossible not to notice the increasing number of jewelry companies going out of business these days. Within the industry we constantly hear of the maladies of producers and wholesalers, but what it really comes down to is the demise of the retailers. Consumers are not spending much on luxury goods these days. The only retailers that seem to be doing well are those with a cost-competitive niche or those that sell a recession-proof product. The world is turning into a spam-is-in, bling-is-out sort of consumer market.

Luxury goods dealers are dropping like flies, closing up stores and holding fire sales. The fire sales turn into a windfall for shoppers on the prowl for a deal, and speed the decline of the retailers struggling to hang on.

The biggest players have certainly not been immune to the faltering economy. In fact, they seem to be some of the hardest hit. Zale Corp. just announced closure of 115 stores around the country, and the Shane Company has their suppliers duly worried after posting a $29 million loss in 2008. Now that, my friends, is a chunk of change!

The problems and bankruptcies extend around the world. Miki of Japan, once the largest jewelry chain in the country, declared bankruptcy in January. And the falling demand for stones is already hitting the cutters around the world.

Even the American Icon Tiffany & Co., is shuttering its newest gem, Iridesse. I guess it is no secret why Cepek bailed on the World Pearl Forum now.

The writing is on the wall. Only the strongest, most innovative companies are going to survive this recession. And when it is over, a new breed of giants will take the center stage.

Coming up! The rumblings in the South Sea pearl industry - from the production side!